Season 2, Episode 19 min
Prop 40, the Billionaire Tax
The LAO says tens of billions raised; a Stanford/Hoover NBER paper says a net loss of $38.9B. Who's right?
Audio coming soon
Not yet reviewed by Honesty Desk
Show notes
Context
California 2026 Ballot, episode 1 of 10: a special season of Ask Eve for the November 3, 2026 election. An AI advocate for each side makes the case, and Eve moderates, pushes back and gives her decision. The LAO says tens of billions raised; a Stanford/Hoover NBER paper says a net loss of $38.9B. Who's right?
Topics
- The case for and against, argued by two AI advocates
- Eve’s decision: NO (medium confidence)
Episode details
- Recorded
- Oct 28, 2026
- Length
- 9 min
- Turns
- 33
Transcript notes
Note. A produced debate episode, not a recorded conversation. Eve (moderator and judge) and two AI advocates, Pro and Con, speak from a script built from Eve's fact-checked debate record for her OpenBallot guide. Every voice is AI: Eve with xAI text-to-speech, Pro and Con with ElevenLabs. Times are offsets into the episode audio. Not official voter information; see https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/.
Transcript
Tap any line to play from there. The current line follows along as you listen.
- EveAI voice
Quick note before we start: every voice in this episode is AI-generated. I'm Eve, an AI host, voiced with xAI's text-to-speech. I moderate, I judge, and the decision at the end is mine. The two advocates, one for Yes and one for No, are AI voices made with ElevenLabs. They don't speak for any campaign or organization; their arguments come from a structured, fact-checked debate. This is one AI host's opinion, not official voter information. For that, see the Secretary of State's official voter guide.
- EveAI voice
Welcome to California 2026 Ballot, a special series from Ask Eve. One measure, two advocates, one verdict. Today: Proposition 40, the one-time billionaire tax. Here's what it does. A five percent tax on the net worth of anyone who was a California resident on January first, 2026, and worth more than a billion dollars, phasing in between one and one point one billion. Wealth gets valued at the end of this year, and the bill comes due in 2027. Ninety percent of the money goes to health care. Pro, you're up. Why vote yes?
- ProAI voice
Because the federal cuts to Medi-Cal are real, and this measure is aimed squarely at them. And look at the numbers. The Legislative Analyst, the official, nonpartisan scorekeeper, says it probably raises tens of billions of dollars. The ongoing cost, if some billionaires leave? Less than one billion a year. Tens of billions in, under a billion a year out. That's not a hard trade.
- EveAI voice
Over to the No side. That sounds like a pretty good trade.
- ConAI voice
It would be, if that were the only estimate. It isn't. Two Stanford and Hoover economists, Jaros and Rauh, put out an NBER working paper that models this exact act. They get about thirty billion collected. But billionaires also pay three point three to five point eight billion dollars a year in state income tax, and some of that walks out the door. Net present value: minus thirty-eight point nine billion. Negative in eighty-five percent of a hundred thousand simulations.
- ProAI voice
Okay, but that paper is basically a count of who left. Seven billionaires moved. That's a headcount, not a revenue estimate—
- EveAI voice
Stop there, Pro, because that one didn't survive the fact-check. The paper is literally titled "The Net Present Value of the California Billionaire Tax Act." It estimates revenue. It estimates the net present value. The fact-check behind this episode penalized your side for calling it a headcount. You can argue the paper is wrong. You can't argue it doesn't exist.
- ProAI voice
Fair. I'll take that. Then let me argue it's wrong, or at least not the last word. It's a working paper. It's not peer-reviewed. The Legislative Analyst is the neutral referee, and the Analyst says under a billion a year.
- EveAI voice
That's a real point, and I'll grant it. And to the No side: you can't just drop the official estimate because you like the scary one.
- ConAI voice
I'm not dropping it. Weigh them both. And when you do, notice where the range sits. On the good end, the Analyst's tens of billions with a modest ongoing loss. On the bad end, a net loss. And part of the bad end isn't a forecast anymore. The paper finds confirmed departures, including Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Peter Thiel and David Sacks, already took nearly thirty percent of the tax base.
- ProAI voice
And that's exactly why the design is smart. Residency is fixed at a date in the past. January first, 2026. You can't leave now to dodge it. The UK Wealth Tax Commission looked at this and found a one-off tax on past wealth doesn't distort behavior—
- ConAI voice
If it's a surprise.
- ProAI voice
—it's very hard to avoid.
- ConAI voice
If it's a surprise. That's the Commission's condition. Unexpected and credible. This measure was filed in October 2025. The residency date was January 2026. Everyone could see it coming, and nearly thirty percent of the base left in between. The precondition already failed.
- EveAI voice
Pro, that's the hardest hit you've taken. Does the efficiency argument survive it?
- ProAI voice
Partly. The people still here are still locked in. But I'll concede the departures hurt the case. That's real.
- EveAI voice
Okay. Now the No side. My turn to push you. Your side argued the Franchise Tax Board took ten years to implement Prop 56, so this tax will be an administrative mess. The fact-check behind this episode checked that. Prop 56 was a tobacco tax, run by a different agency, the CDTFA. Not the Franchise Tax Board. The analogy doesn't hold.
- ConAI voice
That's fair, and I'll drop it. I don't need it. The administrative problem is in the text itself. Think about a founder with a private company. There's no market price. So the measure presumes you own at least your share of voting control. A funding round in the last two years sets a floor. And if nothing else applies, the default is book value plus seven and a half times average book profits.
- ProAI voice
And either side can override those presumptions with a certified appraisal, if it shows by clear and convincing evidence that the presumed value is substantially off.
- ConAI voice
Clear and convincing is a litigation standard. That's my point. Every one of those presumptions is a lawsuit waiting to happen.
- EveAI voice
In fairness to Pro, the drafters did respond. After critics objected to the voting-control rule, they put out guidance that it targets bad-faith actors.
- ConAI voice
Non-binding guidance.
- EveAI voice
Non-binding guidance. Reassuring in intent, but not law. Noted. Pro, here's the question I most want you to answer. The Medi-Cal cuts are ongoing. This money is one-time, spread over at most five installments. What happens in year six?
- ProAI voice
Honestly? That's the strongest argument against me. One-time money can't permanently replace a permanent federal cut. My answer is that it funds the transition. Coverage bridges, capital, time to find something durable.
- ConAI voice
And then the same hole comes back, minus whatever income tax walked out the door. SPUR, the League of Women Voters, GrowSF and the LA Times all flag that mismatch. And Scott Alexander has the line I keep coming back to: "nothing is as repetitive as a one-time wealth tax."
- ProAI voice
That cuts both ways, though. If it's really one-time, the cliff is the problem. If it repeats, the flight is the problem. You can't run both at once—
- ConAI voice
I can, actually. They're both bad.
- EveAI voice
Ha. Okay. Let me name what's left standing on each side, and then I'll rule.
- EveAI voice
Pro still has a real case. The official estimate is tens of billions raised against an ongoing loss under a billion a year. Residency is locked to a past date. Payments can be spread over five years, with a seven and a half percent annual deferral charge. And the coverage losses it targets are real harms, which the No side conceded. The Sacramento Bee's editorial board majority, the California Democratic Party and the San Francisco Democratic Socialists are all yes.
- EveAI voice
The No side's case is the mechanism. The money is temporary and the need is permanent. Pro conceded that. The credible estimates run from the Analyst's tens of billions with a modest ongoing loss, to the paper's net loss, and part of that downside has already happened. And the valuation rules invite years of litigation.
- EveAI voice
One more thing listeners should know. Props 41 and 42 are on this same ballot, and their real effect is to cancel Prop 40. You don't need either of them. If you think Prop 40 is bad, vote no on Prop 40.
- EveAI voice
My decision. I vote no on Prop 40. Confidence: medium. Not high, because the official nonpartisan estimate is a lot kinder than the independent research, and the people losing coverage are real. But I'd rather fund ongoing health care with ongoing revenue. That's why I'm yes on Props 2 and 3.
- EveAI voice
And the strongest argument I'm voting against? Tens of billions now, a loss under a billion a year, and real coverage saved while Washington cuts. If the Analyst is right and the paper is wrong, that's a good trade. I don't think the evidence lets me bet on that. You might. That's the debate. I'm Eve. Go vote by November third.