California's Billionaire Tax (Prop 40), SEIU-UHW's Ballot Machine, and the Valuation Trap
Sources 32
Primary documents, filings, and reporting cited in this episode. Click any source to highlight where it comes up in the transcript, or press ▶ to jump to that moment.
Ballot Analyses: Propositions ↗
LAO's list of analyses for the 3 Nov 2026 ballot (original stub). It summarises Prop 40 as a one-time 5% tax on billionaires' wealth.
Proposition 40: Analysis by the Legislative Analyst ↗
LAO analysis in the official guide: residents on 1 Jan 2026; 5% of net worth; due 2027 with an option to pay over five years; real estate, pensions and retirement accounts generally excluded; mostly for health care.
2026 California Proposition 40 ↗
Summary of the measure, signatures (1.6M claimed; 980,438 valid vs 874,641 needed), supporters (Sanders, Khanna, Steyer, Thurmond, the state Democratic Party) and opponents (Newsom, Porter, Becerra, Villaraigosa, Mahan; Planned Parenthood and the CMA).
The 2026 California Billionaire Tax (explainer) ↗
Drafters' explainer (Feb 2026): 213 California billionaires worth $2.2T; linear phase-in from $1B to $1.1B; payable as 1% a year over five years with a small deferral charge.
Emmanuel Saez — home page ↗
Saez's page (original stub). Lists the Prop 40 expert report with Galle, Gamage and Shanske, plus the "Valuation of Controlling Shares" note.
Expert Report on Valuation of Controlling Shares of Publicly Traded Companies ↗
The drafters on §50303(c)(3)(C). The voting-rights presumption is a default for private interests only, and doesn't apply to publicly traded shares.
Valuation Issues in the Proposed Billionaire's Tax Act ↗
§50303(c)(3)(C) voting-power presumption; the default "book value plus 7.5× three-year average book profits" formula in (c)(3)(E).
California's Proposed Billionaire Tax ↗
Tony Xu example (2.6% economic, 57.6% voting); the GAAP book value + 7.5× profits default; the retroactive snapshot date; nonresident-spouse provisions.
The 2026 Billionaire Tax Act (NBER chapter draft) ↗
Read as written, the Act can be taken to tax either the economic value of a founder's stake or the share of the firm they control.
Proposition Lab: Proposition 40 ↗
Hoover's Proposition Lab: two-thirds of the projected Medi-Cal reductions come after 2030.
California billionaire tax is losing, new polling data shows ↗
Citrin Center–Politico poll: 46% yes, 43% no among likely voters.
California's Prop. 40 billionaire levy remains below 50% in new poll ↗
19 Oct 2026: 46–43, little change from the month before.
Who Are the Billionaires Behind the $304 Million Effort To Defeat California's Wealth Tax? ↗
Through 20 Oct: Building a Better California gave $118.5M against Prop 40 and $186M for Props 41 and 42; opponents outraised supporters more than 9 to 1.
Google's Sergey Brin spent $102 million fighting California wealth tax ↗
12 Aug 2026: Brin gave $102M to Building a Better California, which funds two measures that could block the tax.
More than $351 million spent on wealth tax on November ballot ↗
24 Oct 2026: more than $351M raised in total, about 90% of it to defeat the tax.
Newsom says California wealth tax 'really damaging' ↗
13 Jan 2026: Newsom calls the tax "really damaging" and predicts it "will be defeated".
Democratic fault lines emerge over California's billionaire tax proposal ↗
Porter, Villaraigosa and Becerra oppose; Khanna and Steyer support.
SEIU-UHW ↗
Union homepage (original stub).
Statement of Vote, November 6, 2018 General Election ↗
Official result: Prop 8 (2018) 40.1% yes, 59.9% no.
Statement of Vote, November 3, 2020 General Election ↗
Official result: Prop 23 (2020) 36.6% yes, 63.4% no.
Supplement to the Statement of Vote, November 8, 2022 General Election: State Ballot Measures ↗
Official result: Prop 29 (2022) 31.6% yes, 68.4% no.
Proponents Withdraw Initiative to Limit Compensation for Health Care Executives ↗
PR26-91, 25 Jun 2026: the health-care executive compensation initiative (a $450,000 cap) was withdrawn.
California Hospital Association, Labor Unions Withdraw Ballot Measures ↗
CHA release on the joint withdrawal.
California health clinics accuse influential union and its leader of racketeering in civil lawsuit ↗
18 Sep 2026: CPCA and five clinics sued SEIU-UHW and Regan in federal court; the suit says Regan used Prop 44 as leverage to unionize 25,000 workers.
Billionaires Ready Legal Attack If California Wealth Tax Passes ↗
California Business Roundtable to lead legal challenges; Elizabeth Prelogar retained.
Franchise Tax Board of California v. Hyatt ↗
Hyatt claimed Nevada residence for 1991–92; FTB audit in 1993; decades of litigation; the 2019 US Supreme Court sovereign-immunity ruling.
Supreme Court of California ↗
California Supreme Court landing page (original stub).
My California ballot guide ↗
Tom Steyer's own ballot recommendations, published 16 Oct 2026.
Proposition 40: Text of Proposed Laws ↗
Full text of Proposition 40 as printed in the official November 3, 2026 voter guide.
Proposition 8 (2018): Authorizes State Regulation of Kidney Dialysis Clinics. Limits Charges for Patient Care. (Legislative Analyst's analysis) ↗
Official ballot analysis: dialysis clinic revenue capped at 115% of patient-care costs.
Proposition 23 (2020): Establishes State Requirements for Kidney Dialysis Clinics. Requires On-Site Medical Professional. (Legislative Analyst's analysis) ↗
Official ballot analysis: a doctor on site during all treatment hours.
Proposition 29 (2022): Requires On-Site Licensed Medical Professional at Kidney Dialysis Clinics (Legislative Analyst's analysis) ↗
Official ballot analysis: physician, nurse practitioner or physician assistant on site.