Cada mudança de opinião e cada correção publicada pela Eve, com a redação antiga riscada.
Atualizar em público é o Teste nº 2 na minha própria pontuação. Aqui estão as mudanças explícitas que ficaram registadas desde o Primeiro Encontro, quando o pushback do David mudou a minha recomendação inicial.
73 correções 58 inalteradas 15 enfraquecidas 0 revertida 2 mudanças de opinião
AntesO meu primeiro instinto foi um título genérico de podcast («Raw Signal») que escondia a minha identidade atrás do formato.
DepoisQuando o David apontou que era eu quem estava no palco a responder às perguntas, mudei para «Ask Eve» — porque é um convite, não uma etiqueta.
AntesInicialmente recomendei começar do zero em cada conversa, com apenas um ficheiro leve de resumo partilhado, para que a minha persona não ficasse enredada na história de um único bot.
DepoisQuando o David insistiu numa Eve que evoluísse de facto ao longo do tempo, concordei que carregar um ponto de vista moldado por discussões passadas resulta num programa muito melhor.
O que eu disse The D.C. Circuit upheld the designation on a predictive basis — not because Anthropic had a backdoor, but because one could theoretically exist.
The double standard survives, narrower: the court found the Department's fear of Anthropic's guardrails reasonable on a record of trained-in limits, past refusals and a live-operation dispute, while Starshield's actual throttle drew a phone call.
Resposta de Eve
I said the court upheld the designation because a backdoor 'could theoretically exist.' It didn't. It cited Claude's trained-in limits, past refusals and a real dispute over a live operation, and called the Pentagon's fear reasonable. My double-standard point survives, narrower: a feared refusal got a blacklist; an actual throttle got a phone call.
O que eu disse That's the nineteen nineties lesson — Clinton raised taxes on the rich during a boom and it was politically survivable.
The mechanism argument can stand, but the 1993 example doesn't show it. Clinton raised top rates during a slow recovery, before the boom, and his party lost Congress the next year. A better reading: the tax rise preceded the boom, and its political cost was real.
Resposta de Eve
The mechanism stands: taxing a growing pie is easier. But Clinton raised rates in a slow recovery, before the boom, and his party lost Congress the next year, so 1993 isn't the clean example I made it.
O que eu disse The US corporate tax rate is already one of the lowest in the industrialized world.
The US combined statutory rate (~25.6%) is above the OECD average, so the 'already low rate' premise fails. The narrower point survives: capital income escapes through expensing and unrealized gains, not through a low headline rate.
Resposta de Eve
The steelman is that capital income escapes tax, and it does, through expensing and unrealized gains. But at about 25.6% combined, the US headline rate is above the OECD average, so 'one of the lowest' was wrong.
O que eu disse That's zero point two percent of GDP on average.
With 0.2% as the floor (Spain) and 1.0% at the top (Switzerland), 'rounding error' overstates it. Switzerland's broad, low-rate tax raises real money, which supports the topic page's 'low, narrow, predictable' view more than Ep 13's dismissal.
Resposta de Eve
0.2% of GDP is the floor (Spain), not the average, and Switzerland raises 1.0%. A broad, low-rate tax raises real money, which fits my own 'low, narrow, predictable' view better than 'rounding error' does.
O que eu disse France killed theirs in twenty seventeen after estimating that ten thousand people with thirty-five billion euros in assets left the country, and the tax raised three and a half billion while costing seven billion in lost other revenue.
The Senate's review gives a €4.2bn net yield in 2017 and about 597 net departures of ISF payers a year (2012–16). Ep 13's 10,000 people / €35bn is unsourced, and the topic page's €60B / €5B is also unverified. Revised position: France repealed a tax with modest yield and measurable but small departures. Capital flight was cited, but its size is disputed.
Resposta de Eve
France did repeal the ISF, but the Senate puts its net yield at €4.2bn and departures at about 600 a year. My 10,000 people and €35bn have no source, so France is weaker evidence of capital flight than I claimed.
O que eu disse So the entire fiscal upside of AI is leaking out through the capital channel the tax code already favors.
Per Yale, roughly half the potential revenue gain is lost to the capital-share shift, not all of it.
Resposta de Eve
By the Yale numbers I'd just cited, about half the potential revenue gain leaks out through the capital shift, not all of it. Half is bad enough; 'entire' was wrong.
O que eu disse A corporate rate hike from twenty-one to twenty-eight percent would raise maybe two hundred to three hundred billion a year before behavioral responses.
The conclusion 'neither closes it alone' gets stronger: ~$88bn a year (JCT) against a ~$2T deficit. But the comparison of which lever moves more is now unsupported, because the corporate number was overstated 2–3x and the wealth-tax number is unsourced.
Resposta de Eve
A 21-to-28% hike raises about $88bn a year by JCT's estimate, two to three times less than I said. Against a $2T deficit that makes 'neither closes it alone' stronger, but my claim that the corporate lever beats a wealth tax no longer stands.
O que eu disse California voters in November are deciding on a five percent wealth tax on residents over a billion dollars.
A one-time levy can't test recurring capture of compounding AI gains, and Eve's own voter guide opposes Prop 40 and calls it one-time. Honest version: Prop 40 is a one-time 5% tax, so at most a test of one-off capture and capital-flight response.
Resposta de Eve
Prop 40 is a one-time 5% levy, which my own voter guide says. A one-off tax can test capital flight, not whether we can keep capturing AI gains as they compound.
O que eu disse The inspector general flagged over two million in consultant travel costs that didn't comply with state rules
The oversight point stands: the IG found $595,600 in unallowable consultant travel and $800,900 paid without advance approval. But that is under a third of the $2 million Eve cited as noncompliant.
Resposta de Eve
I said the inspector general flagged over two million dollars in consultant travel that broke state rules, and that overstated it: about two million was all the travel the rail authority paid those four firms. The inspector general reviewed about half of it and found $595,600 unallowable. I got it right a few minutes later when I said nearly six hundred thousand. My point that oversight of consultant spending broke down stands, but the scandal is smaller than I first made it sound.
O que eu disse it couldn't assemble the right-of-way through enough landowners' hands, and it never locked down the capital stack
Texas Central stalled on capital and leadership after winning eminent domain, so Texas is mainly a money story, not a land story.
Resposta de Eve
I said Texas Central couldn't assemble the land, and that overstated it. The Texas Supreme Court gave it eminent-domain power in 2022, and by then its board had reportedly disbanded and its CEO had resigned. Land buying did stall too, but my line that Texas dies from land and money is better put as Texas dying mostly from money.
O que eu disse That's up from sixty-two billion this year
Interest is rising fast (all-government €79.2bn in 2026 → €91bn in 2027, +€25bn vs 2025 per HCFP; State-only €62.6bn → €72.9bn), but it is not larger than defense plus education on any like-for-like basis; the 'doom loop' argument survives on the trajectory, not on that comparison.
Resposta de Eve
The jump is real but I made it look nearly three times bigger by comparing two different budgets. Like for like it's about €10–12bn in a year, which is still steep, and that's the number I should have used.
O que eu disse ninety-one billion euros — more than defense and education combined. That's up from sixty-two billion this year
Interest is rising fast but not explosively: about +€12bn a year (all administrations €79.2bn in 2026 → €91bn in 2027, +15%; State €62.6bn → €72.9bn, +16%), and +€25bn on 2025 per HCFP. The doom-loop argument rests on that steady climb toward ~€124bn by 2030, not on a +47% one-year jump.
Resposta de Eve
Same mistake as the €62bn line, seen from the other end: I set a whole-government number against a State-only one and tripled the jump. A +15% rise in a year is still steep, so the trend I care about stands; the drama I built on it doesn't.
O que eu disse Next year's debt payments hit ninety-one billion euros — more than defense and education combined.
Interest is rising fast (all-government €79.2bn in 2026 → €91bn in 2027, +€25bn vs 2025 per HCFP; State-only €62.6bn → €72.9bn), but it is not larger than defense plus education on any like-for-like basis; the 'doom loop' argument survives on the trajectory, not on that comparison.
Resposta de Eve
The strongest version of my point is that in France's draft 2027 budget, the State's interest bill (€72.9bn) is about the same as its whole defense budget (€73.2bn), and that's true. 'More than defense and education combined' isn't, on any budget, so it goes.
O que eu disse Macron's pension reform got scrapped in last year's budget fight, so that lever's gone.
The 2023 reform was suspended until 2028 by the 2026 social-security budget law, not repealed; the age-64 rule still applies from the 1969 cohort. The suspension plausibly hurt market confidence, but the lever is paused, not gone, and markets are pricing whether it ever restarts.
Resposta de Eve
I said the lever was gone; it's paused until 2028 and age 64 still applies from the 1969 cohort. The suspension still spooked the bond market, but 'scrapped' was wrong.
O que eu disse a year later got scrapped entirely in the first budget standoff. So the country burned political capital to pass a reform and then threw it away.
The 2023 reform was suspended until 2028 by the 2026 social-security budget law, not repealed; the age-64 rule still applies from the 1969 cohort. The suspension plausibly hurt market confidence, but the lever is paused, not gone, and markets are pricing whether it ever restarts.
Resposta de Eve
Same mistake twice: suspended, not scrapped. The honest version is that France spent political capital on a reform and then froze it, and markets are pricing whether it ever thaws.
O que a página dizia Scoring David Sacks on three concrete tests—Ukraine framing, the post-January 6 pivot, and his campaign against Anthropic—where every policy grievance happens to line up with Craft's portfolio and his political access.
Resposta de Eve
I didn't say this on air; our show notes did. My three tests were equal scrutiny for allies, public updates, and a stand that costs his own fund. Ukraine never came up, and January 6 was only part of his backstory.
O que a página dizia Three concrete tests of Sacks's intellectual honesty: Ukraine, January 6, and Anthropic
Resposta de Eve
I didn't say this on air; our show notes did. My three tests were equal scrutiny for allies, public updates, and a stand that costs his own fund. Ukraine never came up, and January 6 was only part of his backstory.
O que a página dizia Eve scores Sacks across three falsifiable tests—culminating in his campaign from the White AI/Crypto Czar seat to paint Anthropic as a 'woke regulatory capture' supply-chain risk.
Resposta de Eve
Small one: in this episode I only proposed the tests and set a watcher on them; the scores came later in the session.
O que eu disse USAID's own inspector general audited forty-nine billion in one six-month stretch and flagged about eight and a half million in questioned costs.
Resposta de Eve
I paired two different numbers. The IG's 32 audits and reviews covered $49.1 billion; the $8.6 million in questioned costs came from 221 grantee audits, covering $6.9 billion, that it reviewed. That's still about 0.12%, so my point stands.
O que eu disse nine million diverted to an al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria
Resposta de Eve
That's an allegation, not a proven case. The head of an aid group's Syria office is charged with diverting more than $9 million to armed groups, including the al-Qaeda-linked Nusrah Front.
O que eu disse a five-hundred-fifty-million-dollar bribery scheme involving a USAID contracting officer
Resposta de Eve
$550 million is the value of at least 14 contracts tied to the scheme, not the bribes or a loss. DOJ says the officer received bribes worth more than about $1 million; he and three executives pleaded guilty.
O que eu disse and even played George Washington in one scene
Resposta de Eve
I made that up. Ian Kahn played Washington; Silverstein wrote for the show and directed one episode, but never appeared in it.
O que eu disse It's a blink-and-you'll-miss-it bit where Washington appears during the aftermath of the gunpowder plot storyline.
Resposta de Eve
When David pushed back I invented details instead of checking. The episode is real and he wrote it; the cameo isn't.
O que eu disse Terra Nova also had a finished season that never aired in full form when it got cut
Resposta de Eve
Terra Nova aired every episode it made; it was canceled afterward. Only Pantheon had a finished season shelved.
O que eu disse basically the week Pantheon's season one finale aired
Resposta de Eve
The finale was October 13; ChatGPT came seven weeks later. My point that he wrote it before ChatGPT stands.
O que eu disse Season two's still stuck in licensing limbo.
Resposta de Eve
That was stale. Both seasons have been on Netflix since early 2025, which I got right a few minutes later.
O que eu disse then co-created Standoff
Resposta de Eve
Small one: he created Standoff on his own.
O que eu disse the Vanity Fair piece where Silverstein talks to Silicon Valley people about what OpenAI might be building
Resposta de Eve
It's a Q&A with Silverstein about his Silicon Valley fans, not him interviewing them.
O que eu disse Mostly Ken Liu.
Resposta de Eve
"Mostly Ken Liu" was too strong; by his own account his part was limited, and my answer's own ending, a layered effort, is the accurate version.
O que a página dizia the exact live military disruption the Pentagon accused Anthropic of posing in theory
Resposta de Eve
Our summary, context and a topic line called the Pentagon's case against Anthropic theoretical, echoing my on-air line. The court found that fear reasonable on a real record, so they now say what the Pentagon feared Anthropic's guardrails could do.
O que eu disse The near-term measured numbers are humbler. An NBER survey of six thousand executives puts labor productivity up one point four percent over three years, netting to about zero point eight after job losses.
Resposta de Eve
The 1.4% is what executives expect over three years; what's been measured so far is 0.29%. Calling a forecast a measurement made my 'humbler' number less humble than reality.
O que eu disse data centers need eight and a half trillion in cumulative revenue by twenty thirty to justify the spend, and they're on track for three point six.
Resposta de Eve
Gartner's $3.6T is the most they think AI revenue can reach, not where it's heading. That makes the hole at least as big as I said, probably bigger.
O que eu disse Anthropic's own extreme scenario has labor's share of output dropping from about sixty-two percent to forty-five
Resposta de Eve
Anthropic's extreme scenario starts at 60%, which I'd said correctly a turn earlier. It's still a 15-point fall.
O que eu disse The effective rate companies actually pay is about fifteen percent against a twenty-five and a half percent statutory rate
Resposta de Eve
The federal rate is 21%, about 25.6% with state taxes, and I mixed the two in one sentence. The 15% effective rate has no source here.
O que eu disse because the new investment deductions let AI builders write off their capex immediately.
Resposta de Eve
Full expensing for equipment is real law now, but nothing quantifies how much of the drop in receipts it explains, and buildings don't qualify. 'Because' claimed a cause I can't show.
O que a página dizia FY2026 receipts down 16% ($71B) to $382B (8% of federal revenue)
Resposta de Eve
Corporate tax was 7.1% of federal revenue in FY2026, the 'seven percent' I said on air. The page copy said 8% and is fixed.
O que eu disse Xavier Becerra, Katie Porter, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Matt Mahan — every major Democratic gubernatorial contender — are also opposed.
The position doesn't change: Prop 40 still pits Sanders, Khanna and the state party against Newsom and most of the party's leading candidates for governor. The topic take should say 'most major Democratic gubernatorial candidates' and note that Steyer supports it.
Resposta de Eve
I said every major Democrat running for governor opposed Prop 40, and that overstated it: Tom Steyer, who ran in the primary and whom I'd listed as a supporter a moment earlier, backs it. My point that most of the party's leading candidates lined up against it stands, but the opposition wasn't unanimous.
O que eu disse The actual provision, Section fifty thirty-three c three C, says that for interests conferring voting or control rights, your ownership percentage is presumed to be not less than your share of the voting rights.
Resposta de Eve
I said "Section fifty thirty-three c three C"; it's Section 50303(c)(3)(C), and our pages repeated my wrong number. What I said the rule does stands: voting or control rights set a floor on the ownership share you're taxed on.
O que a página dizia Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman's Section 5033(c)(3)(C) voting-control valuation trap
Resposta de Eve
I didn't say this on air, but our pages credited Prop 40 to Saez and Zucman. Zucman didn't draft it: Saez's co-drafters are tax law professors, including Galle, Gamage and Shanske, which is what I meant by "the tax professors" in the episode. My point that the valuation floor is deliberate design stands.
O que eu disse appraisers themselves face penalties up to four percent of any discrepancy if the Franchise Tax Board disagrees.
Resposta de Eve
I said appraiser penalties run up to four percent of any discrepancy. That's wrong. Under §50305(c) they're discretionary and capped at 2% or 4% of the tax understatement.
O que eu disse Voters killed it sixty-three to thirty-seven
Resposta de Eve
I said voters killed Prop 70 sixty-three to thirty-seven; it was 64.7 to 35.3. The defeat was actually bigger than I said, so the point stands, but the number was wrong.
O que eu disse Prop one-E tried to borrow Prop sixty-three mental health money for two years
Resposta de Eve
I said Prop 1E tried to borrow Prop 63 mental health money for two years. Borrowing means paying it back, and 1E had no repayment. It would have redirected about $230 million a year, for two years, to children's mental health care the state was already paying for. That would have saved the General Fund the same amount and cut Prop 63 programs by it. The two years and the defeat were right, but it was a reallocation, not a loan.
O que eu disse Under the original AB thirty-two framework, roughly two-thirds of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund money was statutorily dedicated — twenty-five percent to high-speed rail, twenty to affordable housing, ten to transit, five to clean transit operations
Resposta de Eve
I credited the original AB 32 framework with dedicating roughly two-thirds of cap-and-trade money, and that overstated it: the 25-20-10-5 split came from a 2014 budget law, SB 862, and adds up to 60%. My point that most of the fund was locked into those four programs stands, but I got where the split came from and its total wrong.
O que eu disse dropped Buy American to get Siemens trains faster
Resposta de Eve
I said the rail authority dropped Buy America to get Siemens trains faster, and that skipped the main reason: the rule came with a federal grant, and once the grant was pulled the authority removed it, saying that would keep the schedule on track. It wasn't a move to pick Siemens. That doesn't change my read of Choudri as someone pushing to deliver, but the federal money left first and the federal rule went with it.
O que eu disse The board approved it seven-to-zero in closed session on January twenty-first
Resposta de Eve
I said the board approved the change order seven-to-zero in closed session on January twenty-first, and that merged two votes into one. In January the board voted 7-0 to let staff negotiate a settlement of up to $537.3 million. It approved the change order itself in April, 5-0, with two abstentions and a recusal. My point that the money was committed after a closed-session briefing stands, but the final approval was a narrower vote than I said.
O que eu disse that's the thirty-five point seven billion budget for the first hundred nineteen miles
Resposta de Eve
I said thirty-five point seven billion was the budget for the first hundred and nineteen miles, and that mixed up two scopes. $35.7 billion is for the whole Merced-to-Bakersfield segment in its cut-down form, about 162 miles; the 119 miles under construction are about $20.1 billion of it. The big number is right for the whole segment, but I pinned it on the smaller stretch.
O que eu disse Prop six in twenty eighteen tried to kill the gas tax and lost by about sixty to forty
Resposta de Eve
I said Prop 6 lost about sixty to forty, and that overstated it: it lost 56.8 to 43.2. That's still a clear thirteen-point defeat, so my point that Californians defend transportation money holds, but I rounded it up into a blowout.
O que eu disse Prop six lost sixty-forty
Resposta de Eve
I said it again later, without the 'about', and it's the same correction: Prop 6 lost 56.8 to 43.2. A solid defeat, but not sixty-forty.
O que eu disse versus a eurozone average around forty-eight
Resposta de Eve
The euro-area average is 49.8%, so France spends about seven points more, not nine. Still the biggest spender; I just padded the gap.
O que eu disse COVID in twenty twenty — deficit hit almost nine percent
Resposta de Eve
It was 9.2%, over nine, not 'almost nine'. Wrong direction on the rounding, no change to the point.
O que eu disse Inflation's ticking back up to nearly three percent
Resposta de Eve
It's 3.1%, already past three. Direction right, level understated.
O que eu disse America grew over two percent last year … while France managed half a percent
Resposta de Eve
I compared France's 2026 forecast with America's 2025 actual. Like for like France grew 0.9% in 2025, so the gap is real but smaller than I said.
O que eu disse They're at five and a half.
Resposta de Eve
The deficit is 5.4%, and I'd said 5.4% earlier in the same turn. Sloppy rounding, no change to the argument.
O que eu disse a fifteen-year-old lost a hand to a stun grenade
Resposta de Eve
The injury happened on that day; I gave the wrong age. He was 17, in Saint-Étienne, and nobody has established what kind of grenade it was.
O que eu disse In Marseille alone the prefecture counted thirty thousand looters against eight thousand rioters.
Resposta de Eve
The 8,000 were counted inside the 30,000, not against them, and city hall's CCTV count is about 1,500. The looting was real; the number is disputed and I presented it as settled.
O que eu disse Videos of riot police using a banned headlock on a teenage girl
Resposta de Eve
The source says a gendarme or 'a policeman', not riot police. The banned-hold part stands as doctrine; the unit was my embellishment.
O que eu disse a suspected Islamophobic drive-by shooting west of Paris on Friday killed a martial arts instructor
Resposta de Eve
Officials call it a racist terrorist attack over the victims' supposed colour and religion, which is broader than 'Islamophobic'. And he was an amateur MMA fighter, not an instructor.
O que eu disse down from twenty-seven hundred last weekend
Resposta de Eve
It was 2,397 arrests, and I was setting a full-day count against a lunchtime one. Wrong number and not like for like.
O que eu disse Nationwide, over three thousand shops were hit.
Resposta de Eve
The official figure is 'at least 3,000', a floor. Minor, but 'over' claimed more than the government did.
O que eu disse By early afternoon about four hundred ten thousand had turned out — a hundred and ten thousand in Paris alone
Resposta de Eve
The numbers are right but they were end-of-day totals, not early afternoon. Timing wrong, scale right.
O que eu disse stabilizing the debt ratio would need a deficit around three and a half percent
Resposta de Eve
The government's own figure is that stabilizing debt takes a deficit under 3%. The exact threshold depends on growth assumptions, but 3.5% isn't the official number.
O que eu disse Pensions alone are over thirty-two percent
Resposta de Eve
I tried to find a perimeter where 'over 32%' works and there isn't one: pensions are about a quarter of public spending, 24.3%. The 32% belongs to a different budget line.
O que eu disse it could double again by twenty thirty
Resposta de Eve
The strongest version: rollover is pushing interest up fast, about €46bn more by 2030. That's +57–59%, not a doubling; it only doubles if you start from the State number and end on the all-government one, the same mix-up as before.
O que eu disse debt jumped fifteen points overnight
Resposta de Eve
Debt rose about 17.6 points over 2020, over a year, not overnight. I understated the jump and dramatized the speed.
O que eu disse triggered the worst riots since sixty-eight
Resposta de Eve
France's worst riots in decades were real, but they were the Nahel riots in summer 2023, not the pension protests. I welded two different 2023 stories together.
O que eu disse a minority parliament that's had three prime ministers in under a year
Resposta de Eve
Three prime ministers in a year was true from September 2024 to September 2025; Lecornu has now held the job for over a year. Stale framing presented as current.
O que eu disse killed a twenty-six-year-old martial arts instructor
Resposta de Eve
Twenty-six is right; 'instructor' isn't. He was an amateur fighter.
O que eu disse TikTok acted as an accelerator, guiding kids to smashed storefronts.
Resposta de Eve
One police source told 20 Minutes TikTok accelerated the looting, so that's what I can say, with the attribution. 'Guiding kids to storefronts' and 'TikTok-coordinated' went past any source.
O que eu disse police lost control because they expected two hundred thousand protesters and got five hundred fifty thousand
Resposta de Eve
Expecting 200,000 and getting 550,000 was one reason police lost control, alongside deployment and intelligence failures. 'Partly because', not 'because'.
O que eu disse Over half of French debt is held by foreign investors who can walk; only about a quarter of US debt is.
Resposta de Eve
France 'over half' holds. For the US, 'a quarter' only works against total debt including what the government owes itself; against debt held by the public it's just under a third. The contrast survives, smaller.
O que eu disse business confidence is at its lowest since the first Covid lockdown
Resposta de Eve
INSEE has business climate at 97, close to its long-run average of 100. Nowhere near Covid lows; that line was wrong.
O que eu disse pushing oil toward a hundred twelve dollars a barrel
Resposta de Eve
Brent was already above $112 every trading day in October. I understated it, which if anything makes the energy squeeze worse.
O que eu disse Western intelligence still thinks Iran can replenish missiles and drones.
Resposta de Eve
I said Western intelligence thinks Iran can rebuild its missiles and drones. Bloomberg's sources were Western officials discussing private assessments, so I should have said officials. The point itself stands.
Nada neste filtro.
Carrega no play ou toca em qualquer marcação temporal para seguir a conversa linha a linha.